Grid Guru October 2026 Newsletter

Neil Avery

13 hours ago

11 min read

Updates on the Solar and Heat Pump Industry in this months Grid Guru October 2026 Newsletter

Electricity is VAT-free from today, Gate 2 offers land mid-month, and the Budget is four weeks out. Your October briefing.

October 2026 · Monthly Briefing

From Neil Avery at Grid Guru, renewable energy compliance specialists for UK solar PV, heat pump and EV installers.

Five things to know this month. The October cap and 0% VAT on domestic electricity are both live from today, and Cornwall Insight already has January pencilled in at £1,872: up 9%, all of it gas. The Budget is 28 October, and whether 0% VAT on installs survives past March is the line to watch. Gate 2 Phase 2 distribution offers start landing mid-October. BUS just had its second-busiest month ever. And the first National Heat Pump Week runs 12–16 October, with free sessions daily. Details below.

THIS MONTH AT GRID GURU

On the desk this month: G99s racing the Christmas cut-off, Gate 2 offer reviews for commercial clients, and plug-in solar questions off nearly every survey. The date that matters: a full G99 can take up to 45 working days, so an application in by mid-October is the difference between energised this year and energised in January. Send the job list over: same-day G98 and EV notifications, G99 prepared in 3–5 working days.

REGULATION & POLICY

Live From Today, and January Is Already Priced In

The October cap is in force: electricity 26.32p/kWh with a 54.83p/day standing charge, gas 7.97p/kWh. That's about £1,725 a year for a typical home. And from today domestic electricity carries 0% VAT until 31 March 2027, Great Britain only. Gas stays at 5%. If you reworked your quote figures on the day as we flagged last month, you're done. If not, do it before your next survey. Every running-cost comparison you show a customer changed this morning.

Now look at January. Cornwall Insight's forecast for the next cap is £1,872, up 9%, and it's all gas: tight European storage and supply disruption. Electricity barely moves because it's VAT-free. That's the sales story for the whole quarter in one line: gas is getting dearer faster than electricity, and the gap between the cap and a smart tariff keeps widening. Ofgem confirms the January figure in late November. Tariff tables below.

Budget day is 28 October. The one decision that matters to this trade: whether 0% VAT on installs gets extended past 31 March 2027. Nothing has been trailed either way. We'll cover the result in November's issue.

Four Deadlines, One Date: 31 March 2027

Six months out, four separate things expire on the same day. 0% VAT on solar, battery and heat pump installs reverts to 5%. The £9,000 oil and LPG BUS uplift drops back to £7,500; gov.uk and Energy Saving Trust now show the window plainly, 21 July 2026 to 31 March 2027. Every OZEV chargepoint grant closes (renters and flat owners, landlords, workplaces, all £500 a socket). And the MCS transition deadline lands: everyone must be on the redeveloped installer scheme by then or lose certification.

Two of those you sell with; two you act on. Put the VAT and grant end dates in every autumn quote. On a £10,000 job the VAT alone is £500, and an oil-home heat pump is £1,500 better off before April. On MCS, don't wait to be called: your certification body contacts you when it's your slot, but the new-scheme requirements (an MCS-approved financial protection product and a 6-year remediation guarantee) take time to set up. Start the paperwork now.

BUS: Second-Busiest Month Ever, Record Grants Paid Out

August logged around 7,500 BUS applications: 8% off July's record 8,150, but still the second-highest month since the scheme began. A record of nearly 6,000 grants were issued too. The £9,000 uplift only started on 21 July, and the oil and LPG postcodes are doing the work. Set that against MCS data showing heat pump installs down 17% in the first half: the pipeline has turned, and the winter order book is there for whoever quotes it.

Two rule changes from April still trip installers up. The grant must show as an upfront discount on the quote and invoice, not settled with the customer afterwards. And where a property has no EPC, a utility bill plus photos is now accepted. Get both into your templates once and the paperwork looks after itself.

Quoting heat pumps into the £9,000 window? We do the heat pump design and MCS 021 documentation. See the service.

GRID & DNO

Gate 2 Phase 2 Distribution Offers Start Landing Mid-October

Phase 1 distribution offers keep arriving through mid-November. Phase 2 distribution offers are scheduled from mid-October, area by area, Scotland first, with Ofgem's deadline for completing them set at 31 March 2027. If your commercial clients are in the Phase 2 queue, the offer could land any week now. Read the acceptance deadline printed on it (they vary) and check the queue-management milestones (land rights, planning) before signing. Miss a milestone and the project drops out of the queue.

Treat the published dates as movable. Ofgem's September assessment of NESO said connections reform "has not delivered", citing missed deadlines and inaccurate offers. The only date that counts is the one on your own offer letter. Under 1 MW nothing changes except the calendar: anything you want energised before Christmas needs its G99 in by mid-October.

Got a Gate 2 offer to check or a G99 stuck in a queue? Reply with the reference and we'll go through it with you. No charge.

Plug-In Solar, One Month In: 70 Compliant Kits and Prices Under £500

A month after the 27 August rule change, ENA's register lists around 70 compliant plug-in devices, and City Plumbing broke the £500 barrier in September with 800 W two-panel kits from £432 including VAT. EcoFlow and Zendure kits went compliant late in the month. Registration is now a two-minute job at myplugin.solar rather than a paper G98, so expect more of these devices, properly registered, on the properties you survey.

Nothing changes for you on site: a plug-in kit is still generation, still counts toward the 16 A per phase limit when you add a proper system, and can't get MCS, so no SEG for the customer. Keep asking on every survey. The DNO turnaround table is below. Reply with your last G99 (network, date in, date approved) and it goes in next month's numbers.

Network (DNO) | Typical full G99 response (recent Grid Guru jobs)

National Grid Electricity Distribution Midlands, SW England & S Wales: ~31 days
UK Power Networks London, SE & E England: ~23 days
SSEN S England & N Scotland: ~28 days
SP Energy Networks S Scotland, Merseyside & N Wales: ~25 days
Northern Powergrid NE England & Yorkshire: ~26 days
Electricity North West NW England: ~29 days

TECHNOLOGY IN THE INDUSTRY

What the NEC Said About Where the Market's Going

Solar & Storage Live wrapped on 24 September, and two themes ran through every hall: plug-in solar and all-in-one home storage. Hoymiles launched HiFlow plug-in microinverters aimed straight at the new 800 W category alongside a whole-home battery line, and Midea and Hinen both pushed into UK residential storage. Expect distributor ranges to fill up with both over the winter.

One correction to keep your quotes honest: Sigenergy's SigenStor Neo, shown at Intersolar in June, still has no confirmed UK date, price or warranty document. The original SigenStor is still the product you can buy. Enphase's IQ9N GaN micros are the opposite story: shipping since June and now on distributor shelves with installer cashback. See Trade Watch. Picks table below.

National Heat Pump Week: Free Sessions, 12–16 October

The first National Heat Pump Week runs 12–16 October, with free online sessions every day from the Heat Pump Association and Daikin sponsoring. Friday is the one for the tools: "installing your first heat pump" and fitting heat pumps into an installer business. If you're a solar or EV firm weighing up adding heat pumps before the £9,000 window closes in March, that Friday costs you a lunch break. Register at hpauk.org.uk.

Category | This month's standout picks

Solar panels: Aiko Neostar 3P (low-light, 30-yr); JA Solar DeepBlue 4.0 Pro (value); REC Alpha Pure-RX (shading)
Inverters: Fox ESS KH/KA Series (all-rounder); Sunsynk ECCO (control); SolarEdge Home Wave (shade); Enphase IQ9N GaN micro (complex roofs; cashback at distributors this month)
Heat pumps (R290): Vaillant new-gen aroTHERM plus (44 dB); Mitsubishi Ecodan R290 (6 kW coastal variants now shipping); Grant Aerona 290 (value); Viessmann Vitocal 200-A ie (now in the UK)
EV chargers: Zappi (solar diversion, zapsafe protection); Ohme Home Pro (smart-tariff auto); Hypervolt Home 3 Pro (all-round); Pod Solo 3S (value; Pod is now under EDF)

THIS MONTH'S BEST DEALS

What's worth putting in a quote this month across all three trades.

HEAT PUMPS: £9,000 BUS on oil & LPG homes: window closes 31 March 2027

The end date is now published: the £1,500 off-gas top-up runs 21 July 2026 to 31 March 2027, air-to-water and ground source, then back to £7,500. Stacks with 0% VAT on the install. Vouchers applied for on or after 21 July get the higher rate.

SOLAR · VAT: 0% VAT on installs: six months left

Solar, batteries and heat pumps stay zero-rated to 31 March 2027, then revert to 5%. On a £10,000 job that's £500 back on the table from April. The Budget on 28 October could change the post-March position either way, so re-check after Budget day.

EV CHARGERS: £500 a socket to 31 March 2027, workplaces included

All three OZEV grants now close on 31 March 2027: renters and flat owners, landlords (up to 200 sockets a year), and workplaces (up to 40 sockets, raised from £350 in April). Confirm live figures on gov.uk before quoting. Home charging carries 0% VAT all winter; public charging stays at 20%.

INSTALLER CASH: Baxi £500 to 31 December; Mitsubishi and Bosch £500 offers run to March

Baxi's £500 ASHP cashback (HP40/HP60, MCS installs via Baxi Works, uncapped) closes for registrations 31 December. Alto Energy passes on Mitsubishi's £500 for a first Ecodan install: first 200 installers, to 31 March. Bosch pays £500 per heat pump install to 31 March 2027. New-builds excluded, check the T&Cs.

TRADE WATCH: This month's distributor specials

Midsummer: free Sigenergy controller and meter with every Sigen inverter-and-battery bundle, £130 installer cashback on Enphase IQ 5P batteries (£390 on the System Controller), up to a third off Atmoce microinverters, and 20% off a first EcoFlow order. City Plumbing: compliant 800 W plug-in kits from £432 inc VAT, useful to know when customers ask. The sharper prices sit behind the trade logins, so check your portal before ordering.

ENERGY TARIFFS THIS MONTH

The October cap is live: electricity 26.32p/kWh plus 54.83p/day standing charge, gas 7.97p/kWh, and domestic electricity now carries 0% VAT. Rates below verified late September 2026. Cap-linked tariffs repriced on 1 October, and SEG and smart rates change on ~30 days' notice, so check live before advising. January's cap is forecast up 9%, so the smart-tariff gap only gets wider.

Solar export (SEG): top rates

Octopus Flux: up to 29.32p/kWh peak (Battery + Octopus import)
Good Energy Solar Savings Excl.: 25p/kWh flat, 12-mo fix (Install via Good Energy partner)
OVO SEG Install Exclusive: up to 20p (15p solar-only) (OVO install + import)
So Energy So Bright Export: 20p/kWh, 12-mo (So Energy install + supply)
EDF Export Exclusive (12m, V3): 18p/kWh fixed (Kit bought via EDF; ≤50 kWp)
Ecotricity Smart Export: 16p/kWh variable (No install or import tie)
Outgoing Octopus: 12p/kWh flat (Octopus import)
Standard SEG floor: ~3–4.5p/kWh (Open to anyone)

Unchanged: E.ON Next Export Premium 17.5p (E.ON install, ≤15 kW); British Gas Export Premium 12p (≤15 kW) / Export Extra 8p above that. Intelligent Octopus Flux is still closed to new sign-ups. Good Energy's open variable rate is down to 12p; the 25p is partner-install only. New this month: Octopus Charge Pack pays a guaranteed £12+/month for battery grid-support sessions on top of Go, Intelligent Go or Outgoing. Works with Fox ESS, Sigenergy, SolarEdge, AlphaESS and others. A real line for battery quotes.

EV charging: off-peak windows

EDF GoElectric Overnight: 6.99p/kWh (23:00–06:00, the longest cheap window going)
Intelligent Octopus Go: 8p/kWh, cut 1 Oct (23:30–05:30 + smart bonus slots)
E.ON Next Drive: 8.5p (Smart) / 10p fixed (00:00–06:00; both up in September)
British Gas EV Power: 9p/kWh (00:00–05:00)

ScottishPower EV Saver is 8.5p, and the clocks help: when BST ends on 25 October the window moves back to 00:00–05:00 on most smart meters, so tell customers before they ring about it. OVO Charge Anytime is 14p any-time smart charging, or fixed monthly-mile plans from £27.50 for 700 miles. Against a ~26p capped day rate, a decent off-peak tariff is still worth more per year than the £500 socket grant.

Heat pumps: dedicated tariffs

Cosy Octopus: ~13p off-peak (regional) (Triple-dip: 04–07, 13–16, 22–00)
British Gas Heat Power: 50% off units, as credit (13–16 & 00–07 daily; BG import)
EDF Heat Pump Tracker: standard rate minus 10p (04–07 & 13–16; repriced 1 Oct)
ScottishPower Heat Pump Saver: 14p/kWh (11:00–16:00 daytime block)

Good Energy's 13p heat pump fix ended 30 September and the replacement rate wasn't published as we went to press, so check before recommending. E.ON Next Pumped is quote-only by postcode (super off-peak 22:00–06:00). OVO Heat Pump Plus stays closed. Every rate here just repriced with the cap and the VAT cut. Quote from the live page, not from memory.

[The paperwork decides whether any of this pays: no valid MCS certificate, no SEG registration, no export income. And import and export can sit with different suppliers. We build compliant handover packs for solar PV and heat pumps. See how.

QUESTION FROM AN INSTALLER

"You mention the VAT rate goes back to 5%, but on standalone batteries installed onto existing systems it was 20%. Will that change to 20% VAT?"

No: 5%, the same as everything else on the list. Retrofit and standalone batteries were 20% until 1 February 2024, when battery storage was added to the energy-saving materials relief in its own right. They've been zero-rated since. When the 0% window closes on 31 March 2027, the whole list reverts to the reduced 5% rate, batteries included. Not 20%. The reference is VAT Notice 708/6.

Two caveats. It's supply-and-install in residential premises that qualifies. Supply-only battery sales are 20% now and stay 20%. And the Budget on 28 October could rewrite the post-2027 position either way, so treat 5% as the current law, not a promise. We'll flag any change in November's issue.

Thanks to the installer who sent this one in after last month's issue. Questions for next month welcome. We answer one per issue, named or anonymous. Send yours in.

WHERE WE WATCH

The sources behind this briefing.

Ofgem: ofgem.gov.uk
Price cap announcements, BUS guidance and SEG scheme rules.
Cornwall Insight: cornwall-insight.com
Independent price-cap forecasts ahead of each Ofgem announcement.
NESO: neso.energy
Connections reform timeline, Gate 2 windows and queue data.
GOV.UK (DESNZ & OZEV): gov.uk
BUS grant values, VAT reliefs and chargepoint grant rules.
MCS Certified: mcscertified.com
Installation data, product standards, directory and scheme transition.
Energy Networks Association: energynetworks.org
EREC G98/G99/G100 documentation, Connect Direct and the Type Test Register.
Solar Power Portal: solarpowerportal.co.uk
UK trade coverage of solar PV, storage, policy and market data.
Renewable Energy Installer: renewableenergyinstaller.co.uk
MCS changes, product news and installer business guidance.
Energy Stats UK: energy-stats.uk
Independent smart-tariff pricing across all 14 DNO regions.
MoneySavingExpert: moneysavingexpert.com
Cross-checked import and export tariff comparisons.

HOW GRID GURU CAN HELP

One point of contact for the compliance and design side. Same-day G98 and EV notifications; G99 in 3–5 working days; domestic and commercial.

G98 DNO Notifications — Solar PV and storage G98 notifications — all networks
G99 DNO Applications — Full G99 applications, SLDs and DNO approvals
EV & Heat Pump Notifications — DNO notifications and commercial pre-applications, 1- & 3-phase
Solar PV Design — String sizing, shading analysis and technical specifications
Heat Pump Design — MCS-compliant ASHP design, including MCS 021 documentation
MCS Handover Packs — Compliant domestic & commercial solar PV and heat pump packs
Consultancy — Regulatory guidance, compliance queries and project support

THIS MONTH: BEAT THE CHRISTMAS CUT-OFF

A full G99 can take up to 45 working days, so applications in by mid-October are the ones energised this year. Reply with your winter job list and we'll tell you which jobs need a full G99, which are notification-only, and file the lot. Free to ask, no obligation.

Grid Guru Group Ltd · Co. No. 14645213 · 02920 609009

neil@gridguru.co.uk · www.gridguru.co.uk